This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Past
≤3.0%
$2.4K Volume
1%
3.1%
$2.3K Volume
1%
3.2%
$11.9K Volume
22%
3.3%
$29.2K Volume
79%
3.4%
$2.7K Volume
2%
3.5%
$1.1K Volume
1%
3.6%+
$1.2K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Core PCE YoY - July 2026?
The current front-runner is 3.3% at 78%, ahead of 3.2% at 21%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Core PCE YoY - July 2026?
Traders currently imply a 78% chance for 3.3%. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Core PCE YoY - July 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 26 Aug 2026 (1 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Core PCE YoY - July 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $1.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Core PCE YoY - July 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
October Meeting43%YesNo
September Meeting34%YesNo
0.4%43%YesNo
0.3%29%YesNo
0.2%70%YesNo
0.3%27%YesNo
2.0-2.4%70%YesNo
≤1.9%20%YesNo
1.5-1.7%58%YesNo
1.8-2.0%34%YesNo
3.4%46%YesNo
3.3%30%YesNo
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)63%YesNo
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)34%YesNo
5.00-5.49%50%YesNo
4.50-4.99%23%YesNo
