The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2.6K Volume
1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10.8K Volume
6%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24.6K Volume
36%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$33K Volume
63%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US economic state at the end of 2026?
No runaway leader here - Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 62% versus Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 36%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for US economic state at the end of 2026?
At 62% implied for Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%), the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the US economic state at the end of 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Jan 2027 (161 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on US economic state at the end of 2026?
Total turnover stands at $71K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade US economic state at the end of 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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