Aus · Economy

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August

$2.3K Volume
11/08/2026 00:00
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No change
$12.6K Volume
60%
25 bps increase
$12.4K Volume
38%
25 bps decrease
$4K Volume
5%
50+ bps increase
$2K Volume
1%
50+ bps decrease
$2.2K Volume
1%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
No runaway leader here - No change at 59% versus 25 bps increase at 35%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
At 59% implied for No change, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August market resolve?
The market runs until 11 Aug 2026 (18 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
$2.3K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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