The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
No change
$40K Volume
97%
25 bps increase
$20.7K Volume
3%
50+ bps increase
$25.7K Volume
2%
50+ bps decrease
$15K Volume
1%
25 bps decrease
$14.8K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Japan Decision in July?
No change dominates the field at 96%; the nearest challenger, 25 bps increase, trades at just 2%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Bank of Japan Decision in July?
Traders price No change at a 96% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Bank of Japan Decision in July market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Jul 2026 (22 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Bank of Japan Decision in July?
Traders have put $5K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Bank of Japan Decision in July on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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