Israel Prediction Markets

Israel prediction markets cover the central scenarios: election outcomes, coalition composition, PM tenure, security and war events, and macro-economic developments. Polymarket prices in real time based on order-book depth.

These markets are especially active around decision dates — election day, security cabinet meetings, government sessions. Volume reflects global interest in the events.

50 active markets
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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot40%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu36%YesNo
$23.6M Volume 31/12
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
LebanonLebanon10%YesNo
VenezuelaVenezuela1%YesNo
$491.1K Volume Ends today
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3124%YesNo
July 3112%YesNo
$20.2M Volume Ends today
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 317%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$9.7M Volume Ends today
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15%
chance
Yes No
$85.9K Volume 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
September 3044%YesNo
August 3133%YesNo
$3.8M Volume Ends today
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3122%YesNo
September 3012%YesNo
$7M Volume Ends today
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
12%
chance
Yes No
$69.7K Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
July 315%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$11.9M Volume Ends today
Netanyahu out by...?Netanyahu out by...?
December 3148%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$22.4K Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10%
chance
Yes No
$75.3K Volume 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3148%YesNo
July 319%YesNo
$597K Volume
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
VenezuelaVenezuela40%YesNo
LebanonLebanon34%YesNo
$491.1K Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
June 301%
December 3148%
$442.4K Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
June 301%
December 3145%
$2M Volume 31/12
Israeli parliament dissolved by...?Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
July 3159%YesNo
July 1525%YesNo
$1.9M Volume Ends today
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
31%
chance
Yes No
$12.1K Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 317%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$21.5M Volume Ends today
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202651%YesNo
June 30, 20261%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
453%YesNo
527%YesNo
$2.1K Volume 31/12
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud46%YesNo
YasharYashar36%YesNo
$59.9K Volume 27/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?
1%
chance
Yes No
$12.1K Volume Ends today
Bank of Israel Decision in July?Bank of Israel Decision in July?
Decrease92%YesNo
No Change8%YesNo
$1.3K Volume 6 days left
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
20%
chance
Yes No
$1.2K Volume 31/12
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
July 319%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$1.5M Volume Ends today
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
BelgiumBelgium23%YesNo
New ZealandNew Zealand19%YesNo
$947 Volume 31/12
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
11%
chance
Yes No
$820 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland32%YesNo
Lebanon25%YesNo
$572 Volume 31/12
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
13%
chance
Yes No
$480 Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 3145%
$345 Volume 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
June 30, 20261%YesNo
$927.9K Volume Ends today
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
8%
chance
Yes No
$12.1K Volume 31/07
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20269%YesNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%YesNo
$461.8K Volume Ends today
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?
May 311%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$115.4K Volume Ends today
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
July 3144%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$47.8K Volume 31/07
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 20269%
June 30, 20261%
$3.4M Volume 31/12
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
28%
chance
Yes No
$36.8K Volume 31/12
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-2931%YesNo
20-2429%YesNo
$31.5K Volume 27/10
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
23%
chance
Yes No
$90 Volume 31/12
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?
June 30, 20261%
August 31, 20268%
$15.3K Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
July 3146%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$225.5K Volume Ends today
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
$50 Volume 31/12
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
85%
chance
Yes No
$1.8K Volume 27/10
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
December 3116%
June 301%
$135.1K Volume 31/12
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
11%
chance
Yes No
$13 Volume 31/12
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
June 301%YesNo
$102K Volume 31/07
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 314%
September 3050%
$66.1K Volume 30/09
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3147%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$2.8M Volume 31/12
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
July 3152%YesNo
July 1745%YesNo
$1 Volume 31/07
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$160.9K Volume 31/12
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Israel Markets FAQ

What Israel markets exist on Polymarket?

Election markets (who wins? seat counts), coalition formation, PM actions, security events, and economic decisions (rate cuts, law changes). Binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves Israel market prices?

Polls, political statements, security developments and media reporting. Prices react within minutes to significant news.

Can I trade from Israel?

Yes, via Polymarket's Polygon account. Track live markets on our site and open an account through our referral link.

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