Iran · Israel

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

$1.9K Volume
01/10/2026 03:59
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August 31
$62K Volume
9%
September 30
$15.6K Volume
83%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by?
September 30 leads the field at 80%, with August 31 next at 8%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by?
The market makes September 30 the favorite at 80%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Oct 2026 (39 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by?
Total turnover stands at $1.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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