This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 19%, with No at 82%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 19%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
$257.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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