France · Macron

Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

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$33 Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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Past

Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.

A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.

If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.

The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

Yes is priced at 3% and No at 97%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

Traders currently imply a 3% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Will Macron call a referendum by December 31 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

Total traded volume on this market is $33, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Will Macron call a referendum by December 31 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.