banks · Economy

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

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$84 Volume

31/12/2026 23:59

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Past

Jul 31 Jun 30 Jun 30 May 31 May 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 Feb 28 Jan 31 Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Yes is priced at 67% and No at 33%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Traders currently imply a 67% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the US bank failure by December 31, 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $84, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade US bank failure by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.