This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Yes leads at 66% against 35% for No. That's a clear favorite, but not a done deal - live order-book prices shift with every trade.
What do traders predict for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
The market makes Yes the favorite at 66%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the US bank failure by December 31, 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Total turnover stands at $1.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade US bank failure by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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