banks · Economy

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

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$2.2K Volume

01/01/2027 04:59

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Past

Jun 30 Jun 30 May 31 May 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 Feb 28 Jan 31 Dec 31, 2025 Nov 30, 2025

Jan 1, 2027 Jul 31 Dec 31 Dec 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Money currently favors Yes at 73%, with No holding 28%. The gap is meaningful yet far from safe; prices update in real time.

What do traders predict for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Traders lean toward Yes, pricing it at 73%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.

When does the US bank failure by December 31, 2026 market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (163 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Traders have put $2.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade US bank failure by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?

Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.