This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US bank failure by July 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 18%, while No trades at 82%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for US bank failure by July 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 18%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US bank failure by July 31 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Jul 2026 (23 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US bank failure by July 31?
$1.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade US bank failure by July 31 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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