This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
July 22
$2.4K Volume
4%
July 23
$6.5K Volume
6%
July 24
$408 Volume
31%
July 25
$1.5K Volume
6%
July 26
$1.6K Volume
6%
July 27
$3.3K Volume
17%
July 28
$2.5K Volume
10%
July 29
$1.3K Volume
41%
July 30
$1.5K Volume
18%
No release by July 31
$10.2K Volume
20%
July 31
$547 Volume
36%
Resolved 7
July 15 or prior
$30 Volume
No
July 16
$191 Volume
No
July 17
$250 Volume
No
July 18
$1K Volume
No
July 19
$974 Volume
No
July 20
$1.8K Volume
No
July 21
$8.2K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Next Claude Opus released on?
Even the leader is cheap - July 29 trades at 22%, No release by July 31 at 19%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Next Claude Opus released on?
Right now the market's best guess is July 29 at 22% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Next Claude Opus released on market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026 (10 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Next Claude Opus released on?
Total turnover stands at $75.4K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Next Claude Opus released on on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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