This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.
A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
September 15
$12.7K Volume
62%
September 30
$13.2K Volume
73%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for NATO downs another Russian drone by?
The current front-runner is September 30 at 61%, ahead of September 15 at 47%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for NATO downs another Russian drone by?
Traders currently imply a 61% chance for September 30. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the NATO downs another Russian drone by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 30 Sep 2026 (33 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on NATO downs another Russian drone by?
Total traded volume on this market is $25.8K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade NATO downs another Russian drone by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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