NATO · putin

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

$5.1K Volume
31/08/2026 23:59
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July 31
$2.6K Volume
23%
August 31
$2.6K Volume
55%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for NATO downs another Russian drone by?
No runaway leader here - August 31 at 54% versus July 31 at 21%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for NATO downs another Russian drone by?
Traders give August 31 a 54% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the NATO downs another Russian drone by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (34 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on NATO downs another Russian drone by?
Traders have put $5.1K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade NATO downs another Russian drone by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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