This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
2200
$9.4K Volume
99%
2300
$2.3K Volume
93%
2400
$7.5K Volume
12%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?
At 99%, 2200 has pulled far clear of 2300 (89%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?
Traders price 2200 at a 99% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Measles cases in U.S. by July 31 market resolve?
Mark 31 Jul 2026 (22 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?
$9.8K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Measles cases in U.S. by July 31 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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