This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 3%, while No trades at 97%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 3% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (130 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
$19K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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