This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran nuclear test before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 6%, with No at 95%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Iran nuclear test before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 6%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Iran nuclear test before 2027 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $1K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Iran nuclear test before 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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