This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Yes is the outsider here at 17%, while No trades at 84%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 17%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30 market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Sep 2026 (84 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Traders have put $7.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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