This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Yes
$204.7K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Iran nuclear test in 2025? (Resolved) market resolve?
This market has already resolved. The final outcome was settled under Polymarket's published resolution criteria.
How much money is trading on Iran nuclear test in 2025? (Resolved)?
Total traded volume on this market is $28, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
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