This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
August 31, 2026
$1.8K Volume
1%
September 30, 2026
$32 Volume
44%
October 31, 2026
$11 Volume
89%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by?
No runaway leader here - October 31, 2026 at 48% versus September 30, 2026 at 26%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by?
Traders give October 31, 2026 a 48% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Nov 2026 (70 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by?
Total turnover stands at $1.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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