This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tesla
· Elon Musk
· SpaceX
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
June 30
$565.3K Volume
2%
September 30
$474 Volume
13%
December 31
$18.4K Volume
35%
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Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by...?
December 3192%
September 3093%
Which cities will Waymo launch in by June 30?
Nashville
Yes 32¢No 68¢
Dallas
Yes 29¢No 71¢
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
7
Yes 34¢No 66¢
10
Yes 23¢No 77¢
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
450k–475k
Yes 35¢No 65¢
425k–450k
Yes 29¢No 71¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
June 301%
December 3120%
