AI Benchmarks · Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

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$288 Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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↑ 1520

$10.7K Volume

47%

↑ 1530

$7.6K Volume

27%

↑ 1540

$1.4K Volume

18%

↑ 1550

$49K Volume

11%

↑ 1600

$24.2K Volume

↑ 1650

$8.6K Volume

↑ 1700

$9K Volume

Resolved 2

↑ 1510

$2.9K Volume

Yes

↑ 1500

$33.8K Volume

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

The current front-runner is ↑ 1520 at 47%, ahead of ↑ 1530 at 27%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.

What do traders predict for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Traders currently imply a 47% chance for ↑ 1520. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Total traded volume on this market is $288, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.