This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
The market prices Yes at only 13%, with No at 87%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 13% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$72K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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