OpenAI · Finance

3rd largest private company end of July?

$7.8K Volume
01/08/2026 18:00
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Stripe
$3.6K Volume
77%
Databricks
$619 Volume
75%
Canva
$283 Volume
40%
Lambda
$350 Volume
2%
Neuralink
$374 Volume
39%
OpenAI
$642 Volume
7%
Perplexity
$580 Volume
40%
Anduril
$339 Volume
6%
Anthropic
$307 Volume
5%
Epic Games
$397 Volume
5%
Kraken
$297 Volume
5%

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for 3rd largest private company end of July?
It's a genuine race: Stripe edges the field at 51%, barely ahead of Databricks at 50%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for 3rd largest private company end of July?
At 51% implied for Stripe, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the 3rd largest private company end of July market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Aug 2026 (3 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on 3rd largest private company end of July?
Traders have put $7.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade 3rd largest private company end of July on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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