Russia · World

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

$449.5K Volume
01/01/2027 04:59
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December 31
$126K Volume
8%
Resolved 1
June 30
$323.4K Volume
No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png

Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg

Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Sloviansk by?
Yes is priced at 7% and No at 93%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Russia capture Sloviansk by?
Traders currently imply a 7% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Russia capture Sloviansk by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Russia capture Sloviansk by?
Total traded volume on this market is $449.5K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Russia capture Sloviansk by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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