Brazil · Politics

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

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$16.7K Volume

31/12/2026 17:00

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December 31

$2.9K Volume

77%

September 30

$1.6K Volume

55%

June 30

$12.2K Volume

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by?

The front-runner right now is December 31 at 76%, ahead of September 30 at 51%. These implied odds update with every trade on Polymarket's order book.

What do traders predict for Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by?

The market gives December 31 a 76% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.

When does the Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by market resolve?

It is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (183 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by?

Total traded volume on this market is $16.7K - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.

How can I trade Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by on Polymarket?

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