This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
December 31, 2026
$9.3K Volume
22%
Resolved 2
September 30
$14.3K Volume
No
December 31
$60K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by?
The market prices Yes at only 19%, with No at 82%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 19% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (176 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by?
$83.7K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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