This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
December 31, 2026
$10.1K Volume
63%
Resolved 2
September 30
$14.3K Volume
No
December 31
$60K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by?
Yes is priced at 37% and No at 63%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by?
Traders currently imply a 37% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by?
Total traded volume on this market is $84.5K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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