This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").
A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
December 31, 2026
$22.7K Volume
33%
Resolved 2
December 31, 2025
$6.9K Volume
No
June 30, 2026
$1.3K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will a new country buy Bitcoin by?
The market prices Yes at only 27%, with No at 74%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will a new country buy Bitcoin by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 27%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will a new country buy Bitcoin by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will a new country buy Bitcoin by?
Total turnover stands at $30.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will a new country buy Bitcoin by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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