This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").
A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
December 31, 2026
$22.7K Volume
29%
Resolved 2
December 31, 2025
$6.9K Volume
No
June 30, 2026
$1.3K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will a new country buy Bitcoin by?
Yes is priced at 21% and No at 80%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will a new country buy Bitcoin by?
Traders currently imply a 21% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will a new country buy Bitcoin by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will a new country buy Bitcoin by?
Total traded volume on this market is $30.9K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will a new country buy Bitcoin by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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