On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 5%, with No at 95%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 5%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
$191.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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