On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Yes is priced at 2% and No at 98%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Traders currently imply a 2% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Total traded volume on this market is $196K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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