Bitcoin · Crypto

Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?

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$3.3K Volume

31/12/2026 17:00

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following:
- The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline. Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own.
- The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet. The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes). Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify.
- The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.

“Activated” means the upgrade has reached the point at which its rules are enforced on Bitcoin mainnet blocks under consensus rules, following any required activation thresholds or lock-in periods.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?

Yes is priced at 5% and No at 95%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?

Traders currently imply a 5% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $3.3K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.