This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 7%, while No trades at 93%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 7%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How can I trade Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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