This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 11%, while No trades at 90%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 11%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
$20 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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