This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
July 17
$505 Volume
40%
July 31
$799 Volume
63%
August 31
$1.5K Volume
86%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Moscow air traffic suspended by?
August 31 dominates the field at 86%; the nearest challenger, July 31, trades at just 62%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Moscow air traffic suspended by?
With 86% implied for August 31, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the Moscow air traffic suspended by market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Aug 2026 (54 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Moscow air traffic suspended by?
$2.8K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Moscow air traffic suspended by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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