US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

The prediction market regarding a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 currently stands at a 39.7% probability, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations. With a trading volume of $1.8 million, this market highlights the significant interest and uncertainty surrounding the potential for a formal agreement on Iranian nuclear research and weapon development. The outcome of this deal is crucial, as it could reshape geopolitical dynamics and impact global security and energy markets.