This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 5%, with No at 95%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 5% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
$24 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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