Brazil · Politics

US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

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$2.4K Volume

30/09/2026 23:59

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

Yes is priced at 4% and No at 97%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

Traders currently imply a 4% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 30 Sep 2026 (38 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

Total traded volume on this market is $2.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.