This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Corn Production Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
climate
· Drought
What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
Under 25%
88%
25% to 34%
93%
35% to 49%
88%
50% or more
88%
Resolution Source: agindrought.unl.edu
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)?
The current front-runner is 25% to 34% at 49%, ahead of Under 25% at 47%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)?
Traders currently imply a 49% chance for 25% to 34%. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1) market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 4 Sep 2026 (10 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How can I trade What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1) on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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