This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
No change
$11.5K Volume
78%
25 bps increase
$1.2K Volume
15%
25 bps decrease
$771 Volume
3%
50+ bps decrease
$706 Volume
1%
50+ bps increase
$586 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November?
The current front-runner is No change at 78%, ahead of 25 bps increase at 12%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November?
Traders currently imply a 78% chance for No change. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 3 Nov 2026 (70 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November?
Total traded volume on this market is $7.6K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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