This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Negative GDP growth in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 7%, with No at 93%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 7% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Negative GDP growth in 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 29 Jan 2027 (203 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Traders have put $29.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Negative GDP growth in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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