This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
≤2.9%
$6.1K Volume
28%
3.0%
$5.1K Volume
29%
3.1%
$3.7K Volume
30%
3.2%
$2.3K Volume
24%
3.3%
$4K Volume
8%
3.4%
$4.5K Volume
7%
3.5%
$3.6K Volume
5%
3.6%
$904 Volume
5%
3.7%+
$1.1K Volume
2%
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for 2026 World GDP Growth?
The current front-runner is 3.1% at 29%, ahead of 3.0% at 29%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for 2026 World GDP Growth?
Traders currently imply a 29% chance for 3.1%. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the 2026 World GDP Growth market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 15 Jan 2027 (142 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on 2026 World GDP Growth?
Total traded volume on this market is $31.3K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade 2026 World GDP Growth on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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