This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Past
<0.5%
$7.6K Volume
5%
0.5–1.0%
$17.3K Volume
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3.8K Volume
10%
1.5–2.0%
$6.7K Volume
33%
2.0–2.5%
$7.1K Volume
38%
>2.5%
$16K Volume
35%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for GDP growth in 2026?
The field is wide open: 2.0–2.5% tops it at just 37%, with 1.5–2.0% close behind at 32%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for GDP growth in 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is 2.0–2.5% at 37% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the GDP growth in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 29 Jan 2027 (159 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on GDP growth in 2026?
$92 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade GDP growth in 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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