Geopolitics · Israel

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

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$940.1K Volume

01/01/2027 04:59

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December 31, 2026

$10K Volume

Resolved 4

December 31

$12.7K Volume

March 31, 2026

$390.1K Volume

April 30, 2026

$235.7K Volume

June 30, 2026

$291.6K Volume

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by?

Yes is priced at 8% and No at 92%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by?

Traders currently imply a 8% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by?

Total traded volume on this market is $940.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.