AI · Kimi

Kimi K4 released by…?

$4.7K Volume
31/12/2026 00:00
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October 31, 2026
$3.3K Volume
19%
December 31, 2026
$1.3K Volume
41%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.

Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Kimi K4 released by?
The field is wide open: December 31, 2026 tops it at just 39%, with October 31, 2026 close behind at 17%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Kimi K4 released by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31, 2026 tops the implied probabilities at just 39%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Kimi K4 released by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (158 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Kimi K4 released by?
Total turnover stands at $4.7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Kimi K4 released by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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