This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
<200
$4.1K Volume
64%
200-219
$841 Volume
24%
220-239
$147 Volume
13%
240+
$159 Volume
13%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
It's a genuine race: <200 edges the field at 62%, barely ahead of 200-219 at 24%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
At 62% implied for <200, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27 market resolve?
The market runs until 2 Aug 2026 (1 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
Traders have put $874 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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