Oil · Iran

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?

$310 Volume
26/07/2026 23:59
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<220
$2.3K Volume
41%
220-229
$1.7K Volume
41%
230-239
$258 Volume
14%
240-249
$291 Volume
9%
250-259
$187 Volume
6%
260+
$763 Volume
16%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
Even the leader is cheap - <220 trades at 40%, 220-229 at 40%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
Right now the market's best guess is <220 at 40% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20 market resolve?
Mark 26 Jul 2026 (5 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
Traders have put $310 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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