Oil · Iran

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?

$874 Volume
09/08/2026 23:59
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<180
76%
180-199
75%
200-219
82%
220+
82%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
Even the leader is cheap - 200-219 trades at 44%, 220+ at 44%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
Right now the market's best guess is 200-219 at 44% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3 market resolve?
Mark 9 Aug 2026 (8 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
Total turnover stands at $874. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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