Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC

Southampton host Millwall at St. Mary’s in Championship matchweek 3, where traders price the hosts at 50% implied win probability, a draw at 25.5%, and the visitors at 23%. Southampton sit 24th after two games (one win, one loss) amid multiple defensive absences including Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Walker-Peters, and Bazunu, plus lingering fallout from the prior season’s Spygate points deduction that has disrupted squad cohesion. Millwall lead the table with two clean-sheet wins and no reported injuries, reflecting strong early organization under Alex Neil. Historical head-to-head favors Southampton at home, yet current form and injury lists narrow the gap, supporting the market’s modest home edge rather than a heavy favorite.