This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 14%, with No at 87%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 14%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the China x Philippines military clash before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $665. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade China x Philippines military clash before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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