China · missile

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

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$8.2K Volume

31/12/2026 23:59

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

Yes is priced at 20% and No at 81%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

Traders currently imply a 20% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the China ballistic missile launch by December 31 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

Total traded volume on this market is $8.2K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade China ballistic missile launch by December 31 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.