This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
The market prices Yes at only 20%, with No at 81%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 20%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the China ballistic missile launch by December 31 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (176 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Traders have put $960 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade China ballistic missile launch by December 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
Alibaba94%YesNo
Z.ai2%YesNo
4.6-4.9%73%YesNo
4.3-4.6%25%YesNo
